Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Iranian Revolution - Aftermath

The Iranian Revolution (Iranian Revolution (GR88)) is over . The flare ups, and there will likely be more, do not change that. There are a few lessons to be learned from the experience. (See "Past related posts" toward the bottom of the page for more information regarding the references and statements about the revolution.)

Most important is that the desire for freedom knows know geographic, ethnic, religious or cultural bounds. As you look around the world, the quest for freedom may use different means and have apparent different outcomes, but the effect sought is the same. There are exceptions to this rule, but they require a level of indoctrination and isolation that is increasingly hard to sustain. The people of Iran yearn to be free. The sacrifices they made, and some continue to make, is undeniable.

Most obvious from the failure; a well armed government is easily able to keep an unarmed population suppressed as long as they are willing to implement brutal tactics. This truth is not knew. There have been other examples in history where the choice has come down to massacre the peaceful marchers or capitulate to their demands/desires. Technological advances mean that fewer people are needed to comply with the 'massacre' order, and that the choice will almost certainly be broadcast live to the world.

Most dishearteningly, there is serious question as to if the United States will stand with and throw its weight behind the people trying to remove the shackles of oppression. We certainly did not here; and adding Israel (Berman Post: Obama Calls For a Contiguous Palestinian State? Split Israel in Half?) and Honduras (Berman Post: Obama Administration Cuts Off Aid to Honduras) it may be part of new trend.

Most interesting is the new roll technology plays in these struggles. Everyone has the capacity to be a mass publisher with both large and linked-small networks of people making it extremely difficult to cut off the information flow. Large masses of people can be assembled in relatively short order, with no need to drag the big media agencies along. The notion of a 'citizen soldier' also takes on a completely new meaning. People half way around the globe can help the revolutionaries in a wide verity of ways. They can helping disseminate information and keep it flowing, hide the revolutionaries using proxies and masking, and even launch attacks by hacking or participating in Denial of Service attacks, all from safety. Helping in these ways does not even require being tech savvy anymore, just being willing to download a program on your computer and leave it running.

Most promisingly is that an oppressive government does not change people's desire for freedom. It just pushes it underground. You see that in Iran with the 'flare ups'. You do not see it in the secrete meetings they are having as they reorganize and plan; but do not make the mistake in thinking that they are not. There are other methods at there disposal that are being implemented. The specifics are not as important as the effects. Some people say that the revolution, even failed, has weakened and cracked the foundation of the authoritarian regime. Others say that the effect was more to highlight them instead of create them. Either way, the cracks are certainly their now and people are working behind the scenes to widen them.

This revolution attempt may be over, but I am confident/hopeful that I will live to see more, one that may finally succeed. My guess is that they are waiting for a leadership change in the United States or some evidence that we have once again started supporting people marching for freedom. That or for a military strike against their countries nuclear facilities using the destruction of command and control centers as part of the attack as a perfect time to take to the streets with a weaker and disorganized government.

Past related posts: (Label - Iranian Revolution (GR88))
Berman Post: Iranian Election Viewed as Rigged
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Protest (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Riots Continue
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Protest at Union Square (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Six)
Berman Post: Prayer Vigil For The Fallen Iranian Protesters (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Ten)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eleven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twelve)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fourteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Sixteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Seventeen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eighteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Nineteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Six)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Six)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Six)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Seven)
Berman Post: How Obama Should Have Handled The Iranian Protests
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Forty-Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Six)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifty-Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Sixty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Sixty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Sixty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution - Over
Berman Post: Flare up in Iran

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