Grassroots vs Astroturf - How to Tell The Movements Apart

I was browsing through some of my protest posts (http://www.bermanpost.com/search/label/Protest) trying to figure out a way to tell Grassroots protests apart from the so called Astroturf. The two answer I came up with are relatively simple.

The first is to show up 15 minutes early. The slightly more difficulty, read the signs, works almost as well.

Lets play a game. What is the difference between these three pictures (from Berman Post: NYC Tax Day Tea Party):

From 4-15-2009 NYC Tea Party Protest

From 4-15-2009 NYC Tea Party Protest

From 4-15-2009 NYC Tea Party Protest

And these three pictures (from Berman Post: Anti-Israel Protest in Union Square (NYC)):

From 1-19-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

From 1-19-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

From 1-19-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

Give up? The second set have multiple duplicate signs. The first set does not. Thus the first way to spot a potential Astroturf protest is to see how many duplicate signs their are. It is exact duplicates that you are looking for. Two hand made signs with the same message should not be counted. The duplicates to take note of are the ones that look professionally made, that is identical prints of signs. Those that have the mark of an organization are especially noteworthy.

Showing up 15 minutes early can give you the same information without all that pesky reading. Observe pictures taken at a few protests before they really began:

Berman Post: Anti-Israel Protest inTime Square NYC

From 1-11-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

From 1-11-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

Berman Post: Anti-Israel Protest in Union Square (NYC)

From 1-19-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

From 1-19-2009 Anti-Israel Protest

Berman Post: May Day Immigration Rally in Union Square (NYC)

From 5-1-2009 May Day Protest

From 5-1-2009 May Day Protest

By showing up early, you can see if groups brought bunches of signs. This method is more effective because some groups are smart enough not to bring so many identical signs. As you can see, that was not the case in the protests shown above.

On to method two. Look for signs of captive groups. They are not always easy to spot. Unions and students are good places to start, as are certain companies. It can also be hard to tell the difference between captive audiences and regular interest groups.

Here are some examples (from Berman Post: May Day Immigration Rally in Union Square (NYC)):

From 5-1-2009 May Day Protest

From 5-1-2009 May Day Protest

From 5-1-2009 May Day Protest

Of course, neither of these signs are a guaranty of an Astroturf protest. Indeed the presence of both does not necessarily indicate an Astroturf protest. Bringing stacks of signs could just be a sign of good preparation. Just because a group is captive does not mean that the members present do not agree with message.

The opposite is less true. That is to say that if neither of these factors is present, it is fairly unlikely that is is an Astroturf protest. People deciding to show up with their own home made signs that are not part of any captive audience represents a ground swell that is classic Grassroots. The only way something like that could happen without it being a true Grassroots protest is if someone was going door to door promising to give people money to people that showed up. It would be impossible to promise 10,000+ people money in secret (or even 100 for that matter), then to pay them in secret. Trust me on this one, if people were promised money and did not get it they would make a lot of noise. It is also virtually statistically impossible to have only offered money to people who at least do not disagree with you. Offer money to the wrong person and that would be front page news.

Clearly the Tea Party movement is not Astroturf, and I would wager that deep down Pelosi knows that too.

Feel free to chime in with your own thoughts/methods in telling Grassroots and Astroturf protests apart.