Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Two)

Update (7/15/2009):Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-Three). End of Update:

A report suggests the death count could be higher then feared with hundreds of unidentified bodies in Tehran's morgues (http://keepingthechange.blogspot.com/2009/07/nooroz-news-tehran-morgue-reportedly.html).

Mir-Hossein Mousavi and his wife visited the home and family of a protester who was killed, where they were swarmed by supporters (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran15-2009jul15,0,4420908.story).

Video (from http://news.gooya.com/politics/archives/2009/07/090764.php)



Protesters turn water red. Pictures available at http://bazaferinieazad.blogspot.com/2009/07/blog-post_4102.html (hat tip for this and preceding link to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/13/iran-uprising-blogging_n_230402.html).

As if there was much doubt; "Statistical Tests Suggestive of Fraud in Iran's Election" (http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/07/14/statistical-tests-suggestive-of-fraud-in-irans-election.html).

Robin Wright talks about the 'tipping point' and what factors are important for each side; "What happens next will be determined by three factors: leadership, unity and momentum.

The opposition is most vulnerable on leadership. The big unanswered question is whether Mousavi, a distinctly uncharismatic politician, can lead the new opposition over the long term. He was an accidental leader of the reform movement, more the product of public sentiment than the creator of it. Without dynamic direction, the opposition may look elsewhere.

The regime is most vulnerable on unity. Many government employees, including civil servants and members of the military, have long grumbled about the strict theocracy. In 1997, a government poll found that 84 percent of the Revolutionary Guards, which include many young men merely fulfilling national service, voted for Mohammad Khatami, the first reform president.

Momentum may be the decisive factor. The regime will need to shift public attention to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's second-term agenda. Though Ahmadinejad blames the outside world for the protests, he may focus on regional or international goals to win the legitimacy that his presidency is unable to get at home.
" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/13/AR2009071302575.html).

Iranian state sponsored media attacked Rafsanjani; "Rafsanjani is a very powerful member of the Iranian establishment who was a major supporter of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and opponent of Ahmadinejad before the election. However, state media, including IRNA, Raja, and Iran newspaper are portraying this as an insignificant event and are even making arguments that he be striped of at least one of his government positions." (http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/state-media-downplays-attacks-rafsanjani-before-sermon).

More information regarding the committe founded by Mousavi and Karroubi; "Etemadmeli (Karroubi’s official newspaper) in today’s newspaper released additional information regarding the committee:


“Ali Reza Hosseini Beheshti (son of famous martyr Beheshti) will be the official spokes person of the committee.”


“Families of the victims can conduct searches for their arrested relatives, and additionally they can now pursue legal actions through the various facets of the committee.”


“The committee is a legal organization and Morteza Olavy will be the head of the legal division.”


“The aim of this committee is to exert sufficient pressure on the judiciary and penitentiary officials in order to safeguard the release of those who have been arrested.”


“THIS COMMITTEE DOES NOT HAVE POLITICAL AMBITIONS AND ITS GOAL IS TO SERVE THE PEOPLE.”

" (http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/mousavi-karroubi-form-legal-defense-committee).

Have the Iranian "people have left their leaders behind" (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/07/iran-analyst-says-the-people-have-left-their-leaders-behind.html)? Nasser Zarafshan says yes.

Past related posts:
Berman Post: Iranian Election Viewed as Rigged
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Protest (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Riots Continue
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Protest at Union Square (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Six)
Berman Post: Prayer Vigil For The Fallen Iranian Protesters (NYC)
Berman Post: Iranian Election Fraud Riots (Day Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Ten)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eleven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twelve)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fourteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Fifteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Sixteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Seventeen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Eighteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Nineteen)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-One)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Two)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Three)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Four)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Five)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Six)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Seven)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Eight)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Twenty-Nine)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty)
Berman Post: Iranian Revolution (Day Thirty-One)

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