Monday, July 13, 2009

China to Attack India Before 2012? Not Going to Happen

Bharat Verma (editor of the Indian Defence Review) thinks that India will be attacked by China within the next three years; "China
will launch an attack on India before 2012. There are multiple reasons for a desperate Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century
" (http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/china_could_attack_india_by_2012_defence_journal.php).

The reasoning is fairly strait forward. Growing unrest in China will cause them to look for something to distract their people with. They also want to strike India before the country grows to powerful and might threaten them. Lastly, attacking a country the West is affiliated with would be a mistake.

The reasoning is also foolish. China is facing growing unrest, but launching a major war will force them to use troops in the conflict that they may currently be using to suppress the unrest. India can also safely be considered an affiliate of the West. The West would likely not take well to China invading any country unprovoked. There is also the slight problem of nuclear annihilation that China would face attacking the nuclear equipped India. Ok, India does not have enough nukes to 'annihilate' China, but they do have enough to kill well north of 100 million people, maybe even closer to half a billion.

China is not going to invade India in the next three years any more then they are going to invade Russia.

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