Thursday, October 2, 2008

October Surprise - Top Ten List of Likely Surprises

Its that time again; the October before a presidential election. As everything comes down to the wire it is time to be on the look out for the infamous October Surprise. With precious little time to react, such a surprise can and has swung elections. So, what might be this election's October Surprise?

It is always possible that nothing will happen, but to leave this on that note would not make for an interesting read. What follows is a top ten list (with a bonus at the end), more or less in order of likelihood, that the October Surprise may be. Keep in mind that more than one of these could happen, and that they may not have much of an effect on the outcome of the election. Still, the list will be of things that will likely have some impact on the outcome though it is not always clear which candidate it will help. This is especially true depending on how the media perceives and portrays the event.

On to the list:
1) Continued/renewed economic turmoil.
2) Terrorist release a statement with commentary on the United States election.
3) Israel bombs Iran.
4) Increased attacks in Iraq and/or Afghanistan by the United States or Terrorists.
5) Significant Terrorist attack some where in the western world or against western targets that kills at least 50 people.
6) Joe Biden drops off the Democratic ticket (extra -> likely for "health reasons" and is replaced by Hillary Clinton).
7) Sara Palin drops off the Republican ticket.
8)"Trooper Gate" "scandal" turns out to have some validity and negatively effects the Republican ticket.
9) Assassination attempt against one of the Presidential Candidates.
10) Major Terrorist attack that kills at least 1,000 people (likely, though not necessarily, a WMD attack).

11) A major world power (ex. Russia, China, India...) or a country of significant concern (ex. Iran, North Korea...) goes to war.

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