Monday, September 14, 2009

How Many People Attended The 9/12 March? (Take Two)

Update (9/18/2009): Berman Post: Aerial Shot of the 9/12 March on DC End of Update:

In 'take one' (Berman Post: How Many People Attended The 9/12 March?) I guess there were around a half-million (500,000) people who marched at the 9/12 rally in DC alone. My new approximation is about one million (1,000,000). A 'take three' to follow if any legitimate or better aerial/satellite photos come to light.

Here, Reason takes a crack at deciphering some numbers.

"Like myself, Matt Welch was surprised by the turnout, which was gigantic. Welch is ready to eat his hat if the crowd wasn't "at least a healthy six figures."

Press accounts are pegging the crowd at somewhere between (get this) 60,000 (ABC News) and and "in excess of 75,000" (local officials) 1.2 million (local police agency estimates) and 2 million people (ABC News again, Fox News, The Daily Mail, and various other outlets).

I confess to having no way of checking or even evaluating these stats, but from my view of the proceedings (and having attended various events over the years), my sense is that 60,000 is way low and 2 million a stretch by a huge factor. Crowd counts are notoriously difficult and always pumped up or down for various reasons.

That said, the three takeaways I had from the event comport with Welch's from yesterday's post: First, the crowd was truly huge. Second, the crowd was from all over the place (both geographically and ideologically). And third, the crowd, well-behaved and stunningly normal in the main, was genuinely pissed off at out of control spending and government policies."

Charlie Martin has some very nicely organized numbers. (page two contains the quoted section)


The legacy media estimate of 60-70 thousand is ludicrous: we have pictures of twice that. Still, it’s been reported, so we’ll keep it.

That’s a pretty wide range. To summarize:

Rumored number2 million
“People meter” count1.5 million
Eight “Pennsylvania Avenues” full of people800 thousand
Grant Memorial area by Park Service method250 thousand
Legacy media reports70 thousand

Average all of those and we get 900,000 plus (924,000). Throw out the outliers, we get 850,000. And remember that the 1.5 million was a real count; it’s inherently a more believable number. Our estimate should be “pulled” upward by that.

Conclusion: probably well more than 850,000 in the crowd.

Which is a lot of people.


I think Dan Riehl really hits the nail on the head here; that what ever then number you think, the pictures show it comparable to 'Obama's welcome'. You have to take into account relative densities here in terms of people per square foot in an organized seating arrangement vs a mosh.

"As it stands today, the generally accepted figure for Obama is a million plus.

Now, if you want to accept any of these numbers, say LBJ's for instance, then if the animated GIF below doesn't display correctly, click on it for the full image. One would be hard pressed to distinguish between the claim of 1.2 million for LBJ and the same for 9/12.

Bottom line? It looks to me as if about as many people who showed up to welcome Obama into the WH a mere 8 or so months ago showed up yesterday in a mood to throw him out.

More pictures with some analysis at

Round up at I kind of had to link to it give that he announced we are 'new friends'.

Past related posts:
Berman Post: DC Crowd Shouts Over CNN Reporter 9/12 March
Berman Post: How Many People Attended The 9/12 March?
Berman Post: Conservatives Cleaner Then Liberals?

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