Friday, October 8, 2010

Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.6%

What makes this number different the the usual 'as bad as this number is, it is actually worse because of the way it is counted' is the idea that it may be half a percent low by its own metrics. Gallup's number, which in recent months has been lower then the official mark, spiked to 10.1% (from 9.4%). The story predicted that since the up tic came predominantly in the second half of the month it was unlikely to be reflected in the current number. This could me we are in for a sharp increase right after the election.

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unem-
ployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflec-
ting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job
losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued
to trend up modestly (+64,000).

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was essentially un-
changed in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent.

"The unemployment rate (as measured) remained at 9.6%, now the 14th month in a row, longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The UNDEREMPLOYMENT rate, that of those unemployed, those too discouraged to continue looking, and those in temporary jobs, remained over 17%. The number of full time workers thrown into temporary jobs has skyrocketed over the past nine months masking the incredible job-unmaking machine these policies have created."

""We won't see under 6 percent for five years," David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said Friday after the Labor Department reported that 95,000 more jobs were lost in September and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent. "It's going to be a slow recovery."
Unemployment has now topped 9.5 percent for 14 months in a row, the longest stretch since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Congress, meanwhile, has left town until after the midterms, failing to decide what to do about wide-ranging Bush-era tax cuts that are due to expire on Jan. 1. Uncertainty over those tax cuts itself is contributing to the lack of hiring as businesses, especially small ones, attempt to figure out what their tax burdens will be next year.

To put this in the contexts of the last year; after rising to %9.5, 'fake' falling to %9.4, rising to %9.7, and then rising again to 9.8%, and rising again to 10.2%, dropping to 10%, held steady, dropping to 9.7%, held steady, held steady again, increased to 9.9%, dropped to 9.7%, fell to 9.5%, holding steady, rising a tick to 9.6%, and now holding steady.

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