Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Election Predictions

Four Years ago I predicted that if Palin did not want it (which she did not) Romney would be the Standard Bearer for the Republican Party (I did get the VP wrong). I also predicted that If Obama's popularity did not fall far enough to be 'primaryed' and replaced (which he obviously was not) that the Republicans would win by a safe margin.

I realize now that I did not specify what a "safe margin" is. A safe margin to me is a win in which any one state in contention (that is to say a swing states) flipping sides would not change the results. In other words, if Romney's electoral collage win would become a loss if Ohio switched from him to Obama, that would not be a 'safe' margin. That would be a 'razor thin' margin. While it does not effect the outcome, a safe margin in my mind included a win in the popular vote. An electoral college and popular vote split would be another razor thin margin.

I stand by that prediction. I believe that Romney will win by a safe margin, and comfortably at that. I also predict that Republicans will maintain control of the house (not exactly going out on a limb there), and that Republicans will control the Senate (a bit more of a limb). To be clear on the Senate, that means at least 50 Republican controlled seats as the VP is the tie breaker.

Just to be extra clear, I do not think the Presidential election is going to be close. Romney is not going to squeak out a victory, he is going to win by a large enough margin that most of the pollsters should never be listened to again. The problem with the polls is the massive oversampling of Democrats. I just do not believe that 2012 will have an even larger Democratic turn out then Obama had in the 2008 election. I believe that 2008 represented a high water mark, and while 2012 may not be as bad for the Democrats as 2010, it will not even equal 2012. I would guess that the turnout is closer to 2010 than 2008. If you adjust the polls yourself through that prism, the results tomorrow will not come as a surprise.

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