Monday, December 7, 2009

Revised Deficit Projections, Much Worse Then Before

As I have opined before this was not entirely unpredictable. The projections of an economic recovery were to rosy and did not come true. With a revenue shortfall and increased spending, the projections had to be an undershoot. Exactly how much is what may be surprising.

"Remember this graph?

Updated for recent developments, it now looks like this.

If the deficits continue to overshoot prior estimates, which they almost certainly will, the country is headed for total, hyper-inflationary meltdown: China and Japan will simply cease buying debt that can't be repaid.


  1. My problem with Doug's chart is that I think the FY 2009 deficit came in at $ 1.417 billion, less than projected, which Doug doesn't update.

  2. @Carl - that is an interesting point. I posted on the fiscal year 2009 deficit and it was announced as less then projected. There is some question to if the reason for the shortfall was just an accounting trick. Head over to the comment section of the source for a discussion on your comment. I agree though that it should at least be referenced or explained somewhere on the chart.

  3. You're right--others have picked up that same point. I have no idea whether the announced reduction in last year's deficit is bogus, but Doug's October 09 adjustment relies on numbers from the same part of the Treasury Department that reported the FY 09 decline.

    I consider Doug's chart misleading. And overstating claims hurts the conservative cause.

  4. @Carl - I agree, overstating claims does hurt the cause. The numbers are so abysmal in real life it is almost as if they are made up, which is why people should be even more careful to make sure their statements are accurate. Let me know if you do an updated/fixed graph and I will do an update.

  5. Except Bush didn't put the 2 wars he stared in his budget, Obama does. Recalculate Bush's REAL deficit with those numbers.


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