Saturday, July 2, 2011

Kids Celebrating The Fourth of July Makes Them More Likely to Grow up Republican?

Correlation (assuming their figures are correct) is not the same as causation. Best not to take any chances though...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/07/is-it-parody-or-is-it-harvard.php

"OK, I won’t keep you in suspense any longer. Here are the key findings of the study:

We find that days without rain on Fourth of July in childhood have lifelong effects. In particular, they shift adult views and behavior in favor of the Republicans and increase later-life political participation. Our estimates are significant: one Fourth of July without rain before age 18 raises the likelihood of identifying as a Republican by 2 percent and voting for the Republican candidate by 4 percent. It also increases voter turnout by 0.9 percent and boosts political campaign contributions by 3 percent.

Do I believe it? I don’t doubt that gowing up in a family that makes a big deal out of the Fourth of July is positively correlated with being a Republican. My guess, however, is that no one will be able to replicate the finding that losing a single July 4 celebration to rain between the ages of 7 and 10–the study finds these to be the most influential years–is enough to skew one’s later political leanings.

Just in case, however, here is a suggestion: if you have young children, and if it rains on Monday where you live, don’t take any chances. Celebrate the holiday anyway. Set off fireworks in your garage. Launch bottle rockets from your deck. March around the living room with flags. Read the Declaration of Independence out loud. Take no chances on your kids growing up to be Democrats!
"

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